The New York Times, one of the best safety publications has done it again. They obtained 704 classified assessments done at Guantánamo and published a report on April 25, 2011. The report is a lesson in how not to do risk assessments.
There were detainees who were assessed as high risk who posed no risk. There were detainees assessed as low risk who were high risk. Often assessments were based on evidence with flawed deductive reasoning.
The Casio F91W watch is cheap, reliable and popular. It is sold worldwide often for less than $11. It is simple to use and the batteries last 8 years or longer. Al Qaeda gave them out at a bomb-making class. Is possession of such a watch a clue to terrorist involvement? What is the probability that a wearer got it from Al Qaeda as opposed to many thousands of dealers?
Does lack of travel documents mean training to discard them?
Is a truthful claim to be a farmer or a cook automatically a cover story?
Does cooperation with U.S. authorities mean a severing of terrorist ties or seeking of rewards from captors? Many assessments were based solely on information from other detainees motivated by rewards for information.
A Financial Times article on airplane security quoted the CEO of British Airways as saying that the pilot of the plane should not have the same security check as a Yemini student passenger.
Risk Assessment should start with assessment of the things that could go wrong.
I am stickler for getting purchase receipts especially for cash items. It is a simple low-cost precaution that can serve multiple purposes.
On one occasion in South Carolina I was driving a large van. We had stopped for gas and snacks at a convenience store off of I-95. There were four of us, the cashiers and restrooms all had lines and so we were parked at the pump for quite a while. As we were leaving the radio was on and the others were talking. I just happened to hear over their speakers that we had not paid for our gas. The owner of the van was one who never gets receipts. The only way we avoided double payment was that I knew that he usually paid in quarters from the vending machines at his private zoo. One of the clerks remembered the quarters. South Carolina law is rough on those who drive-off from pumps. Had I not heard the message on the speaker we would have easily been located by the Highway Patrol and had some big trouble. You can be sure no one would have remembered the quarters. No other defense would have worked except a receipt. I would have done time and lost my license to drive.
The risk is that with a cash purchase what happens if there is a claim of non-payment? It is general and could happen anywhere with any type of purchase and with any amount. While possibly not likely the consequences would be severe and the cost of taking a precaution is low.
The idea of Cowboy Safety is to be able to quickly and cheaply assess all risks, have a simple solution and devise ways to eliminate the risk. Training classes running 4 hours, a day, or a week or more are the least likely ways even to minimize risk consequences. The purpose of training is to meet certain requirements and as a defense when something goes wrong. Manuals are equally valueless. Checklists and simple habits often become the best manuals and training.
David Sneed
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